Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Abhishek Chakraborty (Page 2)

You Don’t Understand Probability

Let’s say you are considering putting money into a bet of $1,000. It’s a coin toss. The expected outcome of the bet, i.e., the probabilities of each payoff multiplied by the dollar values at stake is $1,000 (i.e., 50% x $0 + 50% x $2,000). Can you visualise owning $1,000?

We Don’t Learn From Others Mistakes Unless We Repeat Them

As an adult, you are extremely lax in the area of detection and prevention. You smoke, even though in all probability, it’s highly likely to give you cancer. Every other person in your family is either obese or diabetic, yet you can’t help give up desserts after a meal.