Nassim Nicholas Taleb - @coffeeandjunk

Mediocristan and Extremistan: The Two Categories of Random Events

We misappropriate the correlation between one event for some reason and another event for a different reason. What we need to be concerned is with systemic effects: things that can affect more than one person should they happen.

The Lindy Effect: Things That Age In Reverse

According to the Lindy Effect, while a book that has been a hundred years in print is likely to stay in print another hundred years, a 100 year old human being has only a couple more years to go.

Via Negativa: The Process of Making Good Decisions By Eliminating Bad Ones

When we set goals—both personal and professional—we tend to focus on what we should do, rather than focussing on what we should avoid. Humans naturally know more about what is wrong, what is bad, what is harmful, or what won’t work, more than they know about what is right and what would work.

Green Lumber Fallacy: The Disconnect Between Academic Knowledge and Practical Wisdom

What works in real world may not match our stories of why or how it works. Unimportant details and post-hoc narratives can often distract us into thinking we know the reasons for something when we really don’t.

We Don’t Learn From Others Mistakes Unless We Repeat Them

As an adult, you are extremely lax in the area of detection and prevention. You smoke, even though in all probability, it’s highly likely to give you cancer. Every other person in your family is either obese or diabetic, yet you can’t help give up desserts after a meal.

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