What Disasters Can Teach Us About Good System Design
The Chernobyl disaster didn’t happen simply because of Soviet Communist top-down regime. The Challenger disaster didn’t happen simply because of the O-ring seals failure. These so called “root causes” are part of many reasons, and they are definitely not the main reason.
Working Hypothesis: How to Avoid Fooling Yourself
Facts don’t change our minds. The mind is stubborn, and no matter how strong the facts are, we undervalue evidence that contradicts our beliefs and overvalue evidence that confirms them. Ironically, the same brain that empowers rational thinking also skews our judgments.
Circuit Breakers: How to Walk Away from the Best Deals
The best deals are the ones you can walk away from. This is taken to the extreme when you face a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that is slipping off your hands. How do you decide whether to press harder, or to give up? Mountaineer Ed Viesturs may have something to teach us.
Margin of Safety: An Antidote to Risk, Uncertainty, and Ignorance
No matter how smart or confident you (think you) are, it would be foolish to assume that everything is in your control, and nothing would go wrong. There are unknown unknowns lurking around. You need a Margin of Safety in your bets. Always!