Decision Making - Abhishek Chakraborty (Page 4)

Are You Asking The Right Questions?

We form opinions even if we don’t consciously think about them, albeit these are unstructured and ambiguous. But asking the right questions can help you uncover these automatic thoughts, and bring clarity in your thinking.

Compound Thinking: How to Make Time Work For You

When we plan to improve ourselves or grow a business, we pursue dramatic changes like, run 10 km everyday, or grow 10x a month. It’s not sustainable. There’s a better approach.

Alternative Histories: How to Judge The Quality of a Decision

In the real world, it’s very hard to know if a [decision is correct] even if the outcome is positive. Due to randomness, the positive outcome might just be a fluke. If you flip a coin to make an investment decision, not matter how much money you make, it’s still a bad decision.

Conformity: Why Everything Popular is Wrong

No matter how rational you are, consensus is hard to resist. Even if you choose to stick to your guns in the beginning, you are bound to capitulate at the end. It’s hard to look like a bozo for a long time, especially when you are the only bozo in the room.

Margin of Safety: An Antidote to Risk, Uncertainty, and Ignorance

No matter how smart or confident you (think you) are, it would be foolish to assume that everything is in your control, and nothing would go wrong. There are unknown unknowns lurking around. You need a Margin of Safety in your bets. Always!

Fermi Problems: How You Think About A Problem Is More Important Than The Solution

If a question is asked in a school exam, you know that the answer exists. But in a wicked world, often there’s no clear indication that you are approaching the correct solution. Therefore how you think about solving problems becomes more important than the solutions themselves.

Inside View: Why This Time It’s NOT Going to be Different

We focus on a problem by using information that is close at hand. We make predictions based on our unique set of inputs. The more closely we know a problem, the more confident we are. This is wrong!

The Limits of Our Knowledge: Why Only a Few Know How to Avoid Bad Decisions

Awareness of the limited extend of your knowledge is an essential component in decision making, yet it’s easily missed. Crises like the 2008 housing market crash and the Coronavirus pandemic have made it even more obvious just how little we know about the future.