Abhishek Chakraborty (Page 23)

Silent Evidence: Forgetting That Dead Men Tell No Tales

“Where are the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?” replied the 5th century BC Greek sophist Diagoras “the Atheist” of Melos, when shown some painted portraits of worshippers who prayed and then survived a subsequent shipwreck. This is the problem of silent evidence. The drowned worshippers,

How to Become Opinionated

“It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents.”— Charlie Munger I get irked by loud people in meetings. Especially the kind who stay fixated on a idea or notion of their own, who don’t bring much to the table, and make a l

You Don’t Understand Probability

Let’s say you are considering putting money into a bet of $1,000. It’s a coin toss. The expected outcome of the bet, i.e., the probabilities of each payoff multiplied by the dollar values at stake is $1,000 (i.e., 50% x $0 + 50% x $2,000). Can you visualise owning $1,000?

How to Make Decisions When You Have Limited Information

“In founding a startup, you throw yourself off a cliff and build an airplane on the way down.”— Reid Hoffman If you are a startup founder, you have to take business decisions every day. If you are like me, a lot of time you would be stuck with a conundrum, and there won’t be a good way to pick an op

The Psychology of Introversion

I was talking to a friend the other day. He was recently ditched by a date. She was going out with friends to have drinks, and wanted him to join them. He wasn’t comfortable going, and she didn’t take it the right way. “You see, we haven’t even met once. I felt awkward to meet her friends on the fir

How to Turn Your Mistakes Into Benefits

When you make a mistake it is often suggested that the right thing to do is to admit it at once, apologise, and move on. Admitting means you are taking ownership of you mistake, and it puts you in a good light as well. It’s good from an ethical standpoint. Does the same thing apply to businesses as

Why You Shouldn’t Read Post-Hoc Analyses of Success

The internet is littered with articles analysing the wild success of certain Silicon Valley startups. The MO is mostly the same. A certain company did certain things in certain situations and they are now reaping the benefits because of that. Cherrypicked actions/policies/strategies are presented an

Why You Should Plan For Miracles

There are about 7.6 Bn people on earth. 7,600,000,000 people! Understanding the sheer number of people out there in the world can help you make sense of the commonness of coincidences or improbable events. You should not be surprised by coincidences. In fact, you should expect coincidences and mirac