Smart People Should Disagree With You
Being contrarian is often critical to the process of becoming massively valuable. If you can bet on something that nobody agrees with, and win, there’s nothing like it. I’ve written on this topic at length, but turns out that wasn’t enough. It’s still easily misunderstood, which is a shame.
I believe everyone — without exception — will eventually face an irreversible tragedy they did not expect — and they didn’t prepare for it specifically because they did not expect it. While there’s no way to avoid it, we can, at the very least, mentally prepare for what is about to come.
Why We Fool Ourselves
We lie to ourselves through our teeth. Our minds habitually distort (or ignore) critical information. We routinely engage in what we call wishful thinking, we bury our heads in the sand, and once in a while we drink our own Kool-Aid. Is there any reason for that from an evolutionary point of view?